The Long Run Guess

[Flareon350]

24

I see what you did there...

You know what's better than guessing 24?



.....25

[IceyLava108]

√9001()²

[M11k4]

seven

[quiznos00]

Vegeta, what does the Chipwoodstock say about his power level?

It's over 9000!

sorry

[IceyLava108]

This game has been in existence for more than one day. Chipwoodstock should probably remove that statistic or frequently update it.

[Flareon350]

Or just give us the answer to his question.

[IceyLava108]

Assume that the highest possible number chosen by Chipwoodstock reached a top boundary of 999,999,999,999,999. If the answer is not negative, the lowest possible number would be 0. There is a 1 of 1,000,000,000,000,000 chance that the number given is correct, which is not but would probably be deemed impossible by many. If the number changing rule is put into place, once the tenth guess is up and the number is randomly re-selected, the probability of guessing correct decreases from 1/999,999,999,999,991 back to 1/1,000,000,000,000,000.

Assume the number variation rule is not put into action. If the number were to be correctly guessed on the last possible post - the 1,000,000,000,000,000th post - and assuming (with the addition of this post, it would exceed this estimate, but just as a "what if..") that all text in each posts after the original starting post contain anywhere from 8 to 120 bytes assuming the post contains a number (96 bytes without usage of commas) between 1 and 15 (12 without commas) characters long.

So, if the last post, using process of elimination to figure out the last number after 1,000,000,000,000,000 posts, held the correct number, the total amount of data usage from this topic/thread alone would total anywhere from 8,000,000,000,000,000 bytes (equal to about 8 exabytes) to around a maximum of 120,000,000,000,000,000 bytes (equal to about 120 exabytes, or close to 1/8 of an entire zettabyte). In comparison, the internet is estimated to, currently, be the size of somewhere between 500 exabytes and 1 yottabyte. To compare, 500 exabytes is equal to 576,460,752,303,423,488,000 bytes. So if this topic were to contain the mentioned 1 quadrillion posts above, it would use up about 24 percent (12/50) of the entire Internet's total data.



If the number were to be correctly guessed on the first reply, and seeing that there are 392 characters in Chipwoodstock's original topic post, it contains 3136 bytes of text. If the correct number were a single digit, the second post would bump the total up to 3144 bytes. If the number were to be 999,999,999,999,999,999

then the data total would be 3320 bytes, or 3280 bytes without using commas.

None of this is or would be possible as

a. the site would overflow with data

b. the topic would be locked before that anyway (or be forgotten about)

c. the count would roll over at 65535

d. we will not be living organisms anymore

[Earthling]

He stated that the number could be anything at all, that is anything from -∞ to +∞. Thus the chance of guessing right is 1/∞; that is 0.

(EDIT: oh, correction, he said no negative numbers so it's only 0 to +∞. The chance is the same though.)

So my guess is 0.

[AdrenalinDragon]

69

[mobius]

Colonel Mustard... in the library.... with a six month subscription to Glamor Magazine. Boom I got it. TOO EASY

AWARD PLEASE